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Comptes de garantie et retenues : évaluation des risques après la clôture

En bref : Escrow holdbacks are still the default way buyers and sellers price the risk that a representation turns out to be wrong after closing. The 2026 SRS Acquiom Deal Terms Study shows indemnification escrows in uninsured deals holding steady at a 10% median of transaction value, while the growth of warranty and indemnity insurance has pulled escrows on insured deals down toward roughly 0.5% of deal value and turned the escrow itself into a smaller, narrower instrument. Separate escrows for purchase price adjustments and specific known risks such as tax or pending litigation are now routine rather than exceptional. Release timing continues to track the 12-month median survival period for general representations. Neumarz structures escrow and holdback terms so the mechanism matches the actual risk profile of the deal, not habit.

Why Buyers Still Want a Piece Held Back

An escrow exists because a signature at closing does not resolve every question about what was actually sold. Financial statements can be wrong, a customer contract can turn out to be terminable on change of control, a tax position can unwind months later. An indemnity escrow answers a simple negotiating problem: the buyer wants a fund it can reach into without suing anyone, and the seller wants a cap on how much of the purchase price stays exposed after the deal closes. The holdback sits with a third-party agent, released on a schedule tied to how long the seller’s representations survive.

What has changed is not the logic of escrow, but its scale and its purpose. Private M&A deal terms move in cycles tied to how much leverage buyers have, and the last two years have pushed those terms in a distinctly buyer-cautious direction even as deal volume recovered.

How Big an Escrow, and Why the Split Now Matters

According to Fasken’s summary of the 2026 SRS Acquiom Deal Terms Study, which analyzed more than 2,300 private-target transactions closing between 2020 and 2025, the average size of indemnification escrows across all deals rose from 7.8% of transaction value in 2024 to 8.8% in 2025, with the median climbing from 9.0% to 10.0%. But that headline number is misleading on its own, because it blends two very different populations of deals.

Indemnification escrow, % of deal value 2024 average 2025 average 2024 median 2025 median
All deals 7.8% 8.8% 9.0% 10.0%
No RWI 10.9% 11.3% 10.0% 10.0%
RWI 1.4% 2.2% 0.35% 0.5%

Deals without warranty insurance held nearly steady at a 10% median, essentially unchanged from where the market has sat for several years. Deals with insurance in place moved in a completely different band, with a median escrow of roughly half a percent of deal value. The gap between those two rows, roughly twenty times, is the clearest evidence in the data that warranty insurance has not just supplemented the escrow. It has replaced most of what the escrow used to do.

The Insurance Effect: Smaller Escrows, Different Function

Representation and warranty insurance was present on roughly 46% of the deals in the 2026 Study, and its effect on indemnity structure runs well beyond escrow size. When a buyer can recover a breach through an insurance policy rather than by clawing back the seller’s own money, the escrow no longer needs to function as the primary source of recovery. It becomes a smaller retention-style fund, there mainly to cover the policy’s deductible and any excluded risks the underwriter declined to pick up.

This shift also changes what happens when representations do not survive at all. “No survival” or walk-away structures in non-RWI deals actually fell from 18% of deals in 2024 to 11% in 2025, even as insured deals kept relying on the policy rather than the seller as backstop. The practical read for sellers negotiating without insurance is that buyers are asking for more survival, not less, and pricing that survival through a larger escrow rather than a bigger indemnity cap.

Special and Separate Escrows: Carving Out the Known Risks

A single general indemnification escrow rarely covers everything a buyer wants secured. Purchase price adjustment mechanisms, which now appear in the vast majority of private deals, typically carry their own dedicated fund. Roughly 75% of 2024 deals with a PPA mechanism included a separate PPA escrow, sized at a median of about 1% of transaction value, and that structure exists precisely so a working-capital dispute does not tie up the much larger indemnity fund while the parties argue over a closing balance sheet.

Buyers also carve out escrows for risks identified in diligence that they are not willing to fold into the general basket. Nearly three in ten deals now include a special-purpose escrow for a stand-alone matter such as an open tax position or ongoing litigation, separate from both the general indemnity fund and the PPA escrow. The logic is the same one insurers apply when they exclude a known issue from a policy: a specific, identified risk gets its own dedicated reserve rather than diluting the pool set aside for the unknown.

Release Timing and the Survival Clock

An escrow is only as useful as the schedule that governs when it lets go of the seller’s money. That schedule is anchored to how long representations survive post-closing, and the median survival period for general representations has held at 12 months across recent studies, even as more deals shortened that period further. General indemnification escrows typically release on or shortly after that survival date, net of amounts reserved against any claim the buyer has already asserted, while fundamental representations and tax matters, which survive far longer, are usually carved out into their own separate escrow or indemnity structure rather than tying up the general fund for years.

The practical effect is that escrow release is rarely a single event. A general escrow can largely clear at the twelve-month mark while a special escrow tied to a known tax exposure sits open for years, and a PPA escrow resolves on its own, faster timeline tied to the working-capital dispute process rather than the indemnity survival clock.

Structuring the Escrow That Fits the Deal

None of these mechanisms are commodities, even though deal-term studies make them look standardized. The right escrow size depends on how clean the diligence came back, whether insurance is available and at what retention, and how many identified risks need their own dedicated fund rather than a share of the general pool. Getting the split wrong in either direction costs someone: too small an escrow leaves a buyer under-protected against a real diligence finding, and too large a one ties up sale proceeds a seller has already earned.

Neumarz advises both sides of Swiss and cross-border transactions on exactly this allocation, from sizing the general indemnification escrow against comparable market data to structuring special escrows around the specific risks diligence actually surfaces and coordinating escrow terms with any warranty insurance placement. Pricing post-closing risk correctly at signing is what keeps a deal from becoming a dispute a year later.

Références

  1. Fasken, “Private M&A Deal Trends to Watch: Key Takeaways from SRS Acquiom’s 2026 Study,” May 7, 2026. https://www.fasken.com/en/knowledge/2026/05/private-ma-deal-trends-to-watch-key-takeaways-from-srs-acquioms-2026-study
  2. Fasken, “Key Takeaways from SRS Acquiom’s 2024 M&A Deal Terms Study, Working Capital Purchase Price Adjustment Study, and Trends to Watch in 2025,” March 6, 2025. https://www.fasken.com/en/knowledge/2025/03/key-takeaways-from-srs-acquioms-2024-ma-deal
  3. Private Equity Professional (Kip Wallen, SRS Acquiom), “2025 Deal Terms Study Reveals Shifting Leverage Between Buyers and Sellers,” May 5, 2025. https://peprofessional.com/2025/05/2025-deal-terms-study-reveals-shifting-leverage-between-buyers-sellers-on-various-issues-heading-into-the-current-ma-environment/
Orsen Okami
Orsen Okami
https://www.kainjoo.com
Kainjoo est une entreprise spécialisée dans la stratégie de marque et les technologies qui accompagne les secteurs réglementés grâce à des initiatives de marque s'inscrivant dans les démarches Kaizen et Six Sigma.

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(c) les risques inhérents aux investissements, notamment (i) l'évaluation de ces actifs est sujette à une volatilité importante, (ii) le régime réglementaire régissant les investissements en capital-risque est incertain, et de nouvelles réglementations ou politiques peuvent avoir un effet négatif sur le développement des investissements, (iii) le développement futur des entreprises est soumis à une variété de facteurs difficiles à évaluer, (iv) les entreprises et les actifs incorporels sont exposés à des risques de violation de la sécurité, (v) les pertes ou destructions potentielles dues à des menaces de cybersécurité, et (vi) les risques d'un marché illiquide pour les actifs ;

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(k) Risque lié aux taux de change.

D'autres risques et incertitudes dont Allegory Capital et Kainjoo SA n'ont pas connaissance à l'heure actuelle ou qu'elles considèrent comme non significatifs peuvent affecter de manière substantielle leurs activités, leur situation financière, leurs évaluations, leurs performances commerciales et leurs perspectives.

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